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UWM Holdings Corporation(UWMC)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$4.62
-0.17 (-3.45%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $4.62 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $5.18 • Price vs 200d: $5.36
Decision Zone:Support: $4.51 • Resistance: $5.98

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 34.8 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
34.8 Neutral
MACD
-0.14 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Distance from 50d SMA (10.8%) shows stretched downside momentum. Mean-reversion probability rises.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

30.2
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $5.98
Strong
Distance: 29.4%
Current: $4.62
Below 50d SMA
Support: $4.51
Strong
Distance: 2.3%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$5.98
Last Swing Low:$4.51
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 30.2 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $5.98 | Swing Low: $4.51

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$5.98Resistance
29.4%Strong
$5.69
23.1%
$5.39
16.8%
$5.10
10.4%
$4.81
4.1%
$4.51Support
-2.3%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $4.62 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for UWMC • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If UWMC holds above $4.86 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $5.98 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If UWMC breaks below $4.51 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $5.36 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $4.51 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $5.18 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $5.18 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $5.98 or breakdown below $4.51 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $5.18 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $4.51 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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