TickzenTickzen

Microsoft Corporation(MSFT)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$397.23
-2.44 (-0.61%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $397.23 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $440.11 • Price vs 200d: $486.82
Decision Zone:Support: $391.43 • Resistance: $482.64

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 32.0 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
32.0 Neutral
MACD
-12.55 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

38.8
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $482.64
Strong
Distance: 21.5%
Current: $397.23
Below 50d SMA
Support: $391.43
Strong
Distance: 1.5%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$482.64
Last Swing Low:$391.43
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 38.8 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $482.64 | Swing Low: $391.43

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$482.64Resistance
21.5%Strong
$464.40
16.9%
$446.15
12.3%
$427.91
7.7%
$409.67
3.1%
$391.43Support
-1.5%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $397.23 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for MSFT • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If MSFT holds above $404.50 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $482.64 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If MSFT breaks below $391.43 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $486.82 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $391.43 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $440.11 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $440.11 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $482.64 or breakdown below $391.43 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $440.11 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $391.43 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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