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ADT Inc.(ADT)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$7.91
0.05 (0.64%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $7.91 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $8.03 • Price vs 200d: $8.30
Decision Zone:Support: $7.49 • Resistance: $8.30

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 49.6 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
49.6 Neutral
MACD
-0.06 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the upper half of the bands, increasing the probability of mean-reversion or consolidation. However, strong trends can remain extended.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

19.1
Range-Bound
ADX < 20 indicates range-bound market. Trend-following strategies have low probability of success. Consider mean-reversion tactics (buy support, sell resistance).
Strategy: Range-bound. Fade extremes (sell resistance, buy support) with tight stops.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $8.30
Strong
Distance: 4.9%
Current: $7.91
Below 50d SMA
Support: $7.49
Moderate
Distance: 5.3%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$8.30
Last Swing Low:$7.49
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 19.1 - Range-bound regime: Mean-reversion strategies preferred

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $8.30 | Swing Low: $7.49

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$8.30Resistance
4.9%Strong
$8.14
2.9%
$7.98Current
0.8%
$7.81Current
-1.2%
$7.65
-3.3%
$7.49Support
-5.3%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $7.91 shows closer to resistance zone - rejection probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for ADT • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If ADT holds above $7.89 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $8.30 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If ADT breaks below $7.49 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $8.30 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $7.49 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $8.03 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $8.03 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $8.30 or breakdown below $7.49 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $8.03 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $7.49 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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