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United Microelectronics Corporation(UMC)
NYSE
$18.89
0.36 (1.94%)

United Microelectronics Corporation(UMC)Technical Analysis & Charts
NYSE

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $18.89 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $22.76 • Price vs 200d: $19.73
Decision Zone:Support: $18.31 • Resistance: $26.37

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 28.0 is oversold. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
28.0 Oversold
MACD
-1.19 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Distance from 50d SMA (17.0%) shows stretched downside momentum. Mean-reversion probability rises.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Volume remains near 20-day average, showing neutral participation. Price moves in this environment often lack follow-through. Range-bound strategies (buy support, sell resistance) suit this regime better than trend-following. Breakouts require volume expansion > 20-day average to validate. Use tighter stop-losses due to choppy conditions.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

39.4
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $26.37
30-day high
Distance: 39.6%
Current: $18.89
Below 50d SMA
Support: $18.31
30-day low
Distance: 3.1%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern (inferred from the 50/200-day averages): Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
30-Day High:$26.37
30-Day Low:$18.31
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.
⚠️ Trap Risk: Oversold RSI in downtrend often leads to failed bounces. Require volume > 20d avg + close above 50d SMA for reversal.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

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Current ADX: 39.4 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

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Swing High: $26.37 | Swing Low: $18.31

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$26.37Resistance
39.6%Strong
$24.76
31.1%
$23.15
22.5%
$21.53
14.0%
$19.92
5.5%
$18.31Support
-3.1%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $18.89 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for UMC • 3M • 64 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price
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Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If UMC holds above $21.61 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $26.37 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If UMC breaks below $18.31 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $19.73 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $18.31 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $22.76 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Probability of bounce increases due to oversold RSI. Swing traders can consider entry near support.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $22.76 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $26.37 or breakdown below $18.31 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $22.76 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $18.31 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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