TickzenTickzen

Oracle Corporation(ORCL)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$148.08
-10.04 (-6.35%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $148.08 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $173.42 • Price vs 200d: $227.24
Decision Zone:Support: $135.25 • Resistance: $185.31

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 35.6 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
35.6 Neutral
MACD
-4.78 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Distance from 50d SMA (14.6%) shows stretched downside momentum. Mean-reversion probability rises.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

26.9
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $185.31
Strong
Distance: 25.1%
Current: $148.08
Below 50d SMA
Support: $135.25
Moderate
Distance: 8.7%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$185.31
Last Swing Low:$135.25
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 26.9 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $185.31 | Swing Low: $135.25

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$185.31Resistance
25.1%Strong
$175.30
18.4%
$165.29
11.6%
$155.27
4.9%
$145.26Current
-1.9%
$135.25Support
-8.7%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $148.08 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for ORCL • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If ORCL holds above $153.82 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $185.31 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If ORCL breaks below $135.25 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $227.24 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $135.25 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $173.42 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $173.42 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $185.31 or breakdown below $135.25 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $173.42 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $135.25 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

Similar Companies

→ Find stocks in the same sector→ View sector performance→ Compare with industry peers

Analysis Tools

→ Large-cap stocks screener→ Top daily gainers→ Market overview dashboard