TickzenTickzen

NIO Inc.(NIO)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$5.07
0.19 (3.90%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $5.07 | PRIMARY TREND: TRANSITIONAL(Mixed Signals)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Choppy
Medium-Term (Weeks):Range-bound
Long-Term (Months):Needs 200d clear

Timeframes diverge: price is range-bound. Choose strategy based on your trading horizon.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $4.79 • Price vs 200d: $5.78
Decision Zone:Support: $4.38 • Resistance: $5.22

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 61.1 is neutral. The positive MACD suggests the probability of continued upside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
61.1 Neutral
MACD
0.06 Bullish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the upper half of the bands, increasing the probability of mean-reversion or consolidation. However, strong trends can remain extended.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average. Low volume indicates indecision. Breakouts require volume expansion to confirm.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

14.1
Range-Bound
ADX < 20 indicates range-bound market. Trend-following strategies have low probability of success. Consider mean-reversion tactics (buy support, sell resistance).
Strategy: Range-bound. Fade extremes (sell resistance, buy support) with tight stops.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $5.22
Strong
Distance: 3.0%
Current: $5.07
Above 50d SMA
Support: $4.38
Moderate
Distance: 13.6%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Choppy / Range-Bound
No clear directional bias. Price oscillates between support/resistance.
Last Swing High:$5.22
Last Swing Low:$4.38
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Structure is neutral. Wait for breakout confirmation before taking directional bias.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 14.1 - Range-bound regime: Mean-reversion strategies preferred

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $5.22 | Swing Low: $4.38

Structure: Choppy / Range-Bound - No clear directional bias

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$5.22Resistance
3.0%Strong
$5.05Current
-0.4%
$4.88
-3.7%
$4.72
-7.0%
$4.55
-10.3%
$4.38Support
-13.6%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $5.07 shows closer to resistance zone - rejection probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for NIO • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If NIO holds above $4.88 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $5.22 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If NIO breaks below $4.38 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $5.78 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $4.38 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $4.79 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Choppy
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Range-bound
Price near 50d SMA—directional breakout needed. Position traders should wait for confirmation.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Needs 200d clear
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $5.22 or breakdown below $4.38 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Range-bound—sell resistance, buy support. Breakout trade: enter above $5.22 or below $4.38 with volume.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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