INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP(IBM)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move
Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move
IBM is scheduled to report on Oct 21, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $2.89.
EPS: Actual vs Estimate
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.
Green = beat or met, red = missed, amber = our data sources disagree on beat vs miss for that quarter.
Stock Reaction After Earnings
Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.
Dashed lines mark the average actual move (±6.3%).
Did the stock rise after good news?
"Beat" means the company earned more than analysts expected. Here is what the stock did the next day.
In plain words: it beat expectations 11 times, but the stock still fell 6 of those 11 times.
- Apr '26Beat▼ -8.3%
- Jan '26Beat▲ +5.1%
- Oct '25Beat▼ -0.9%
- Jul '25Beat▼ -7.6%
- Apr '25Beat▼ -6.6%
- Jan '25Beat▲ +13.0%
- Oct '24Beat▼ -6.2%
- Jul '24Beat▲ +4.3%
- Apr '24Beat▼ -8.3%
- Jan '24Beat▲ +9.5%
- Oct '23Beat▲ +4.9%
Only reports with a clear beat or miss and a known price reaction are counted. A beat does not guarantee a gain.
Why did IBM fall after beating earnings?
Beating or missing estimates is only part of the story. These are the measurable things that stand out for each surprising reaction.
IBM beat EPS estimates in 11 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 6 times. In 2 of the 6 where we have price data, the stock had already run up before the report.
- Apr 22, 2026EPS beat +5.5%stock -8.3% next day
- It opened 7.8% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Oct 22, 2025EPS beat +8.2%stock -0.9% next day
- It had risen 7.5% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 7.8% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Jul 23, 2025EPS beat +5.7%stock -7.6% next day
- It opened 7.4% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Apr 23, 2025EPS beat +11.9%stock -6.6% next day
- It opened 5.8% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Oct 23, 2024EPS beat +3.1%stock -6.2% next day
- It had risen 5.2% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 5.1% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Apr 24, 2024EPS beat +5.0%stock -8.3% next day
- It opened 8.6% lower as soon as trading resumed.
These are patterns visible in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes. Information only, not investment advice.
Was IBM's earnings move already priced in?
Stocks often move in the weeks before a report. This compares that run-up with what happened after the report.
“Month before” is the move over the 20 trading days up to the last close before the report. “Priced in” means the good news may already be in the price. A run-up of 5% or more is treated as large.
Before vs after each report
Grey: how the stock moved in the 20 trading days before the report. Green or red: how it moved the day after.
Past reports only: this shows what happened, not what will happen.
Does IBM hold its opening gap after earnings?
A gap is how far the stock opens from the previous close. A gap fades when the stock gives back at least half of it by the end of the day.
In 12 reports IBM opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 12 times (17%), and fully reversed 1 time. Gaps up faded 0 of 5; gaps down recovered 2 of 7.
- Jul 22, 2026ReversedOpened -1.5%, closed +0.4%
- Apr 22, 2026HeldOpened -7.8%, closed -8.3%
- Jan 28, 2026HeldOpened +8.1%, closed +5.1%
- Oct 22, 2025FadedOpened -7.8%, closed -0.9%
- Jul 23, 2025HeldOpened -7.4%, closed -7.6%
- Apr 23, 2025HeldOpened -5.8%, closed -6.6%
- Jan 29, 2025HeldOpened +9.3%, closed +13.0%
- Oct 23, 2024HeldOpened -5.1%, closed -6.2%
Gap = opening price vs the previous close. Close = the end of the first session that reflected the report. Reports without a clear opening time are left out.
What the history says
- It fell after 6 of its 11 EPS beats (55%): beating estimates has not been enough on its own.
IBM earnings history
Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.
Swipe sideways to see every column →
| Report date | Time | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | 1-day move | 3-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | After close | $2.93 | $2.93 | 0.0% | +0.43% | +5.11% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | After close | $1.81 | $1.91 | +5.5% | -8.25% | -9.45% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | After close | $4.29 | $4.52 | +5.4% | +5.13% | +6.99% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | After close | $2.45 | $2.65 | +8.2% | -0.87% | +8.90% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | After close | $2.65 | $2.80 | +5.7% | -7.62% | -6.67% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | After close | $1.43 | $1.60 | +11.9% | -6.58% | -3.80% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | After close | $3.78 | $3.92 | +3.7% | +12.96% | +14.04% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | After close | $2.23 | $2.30 | +3.1% | -6.17% | -8.52% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | After close | $2.17 | $2.43 | +12.0% | +4.33% | +4.06% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | After close | $1.60 | $1.68 | +5.0% | -8.25% | -9.05% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | After close | $3.80 | $3.87 | +1.8% | +9.49% | +7.60% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | After close | $2.13 | $2.20 | +3.3% | +4.87% | +4.05% |
Consensus for the next report: EPS $2.89, revenue $16.98B.
IBM Earnings FAQ
Answers computed from INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP's reported history
IBM is scheduled to report on Oct 21, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $2.89.
Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, IBM beat the consensus estimate 11 times (92%), missed 0 and landed in line 1.
Across its last 12 quarters with a measured reaction, IBM moved an average of ±6.3% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 50% of the time; the largest gain was 13.0% and the largest drop -8.3%.
IBM fell in the first session after 6 of its last 11 EPS beats (55%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower. In 2 of the 6 of those falls where price data is available, the stock had already risen before the report.
Across its last 12 quarters with price data, IBM moved an average of -0.4% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 50% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (5 quarters), it fell the next day 60% of the time, averaging -0.3%. After a drop of 3% or more (4 quarters), it rose the next day 75% of the time, averaging +0.7%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.
In 12 reports IBM opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 12 times (17%), and fully reversed once. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.
How we calculate these numbers
Reported EPS and estimates come from Yahoo Finance; report times, upcoming dates and revenue come from Finnhub. The 1-day move is the close-to-close change over the first session that reflects the report (the report-day close for after-close reports, the prior close for pre-market reports); reactions are left blank when the report time is unknown or looks inconsistent. The expected move is the price of the nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report divided by the share price, shown only when the quotes are liquid. Quarters where the two data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but never counted. Information only, not investment advice.
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