BABA Stock Forecast Chart
BABA Stock Forecast 2027: Price Prediction, Price Target & Outlook
Tickzen modelOct 2027 forecast
80% of modelled outcomes finish between
$73.23 – $180.96
−33% to +67% from today's $108.61 · 57% chance of finishing above today's price
BABA Bear Case Forecast 2027
−33% vs today
10% probability of finishing below $73.23
BABA Median Forecast 2027
+6.0% vs today
Midpoint of the range, not a price target
BABA Bull Case Forecast 2027
+67% vs today
10% probability of finishing above $180.96
- Historical
- Forecast median
- 80% range
BABA Price Probability
Tickzen's model has a median Oct 2027 outcome of $115.12 (+6.0%) for BABA. Its 80% modelled range is $73.23 to $180.96.
- Above today’s price57%above $108.61
- Up 10% or more46%above $119.47
- Up 25% or more32%above $135.76
- Up 50% or more16%above $162.92
- Down 10% or more32%below $97.75
- Down 25% or more16%below $81.46
- Down 50% or more2%below $54.31
- Today $108.61
- Model median $115.12
- Analyst mean $186.56
- 80% range
Hover the curve for the chance of finishing above any price.
These probabilities reflect the model's historical range distribution, not guaranteed returns.
Scenario Analysis Chart
Monthly BABA Forecast
Tickzen model, prices in US dollars (USD): low, median and high at each month-end (the last row is the final forecast session, about one year out). The range holds 80% of modelled outcomes.
| Month | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | $93.76 | $109 | $127 |
| Dec 2026 | $89.61 | $110 | $135 |
| Jan 2027 | $86.77 | $110 | $140 |
| Feb 2027 | $84.53 | $111 | $145 |
| Mar 2027 | $82.34 | $111 | $151 |
| Apr 2027 | $80.52 | $112 | $156 |
| May 2027 | $78.98 | $113 | $160 |
| Jun 2027 | $77.52 | $113 | $165 |
| Jul 2027 | $76.20 | $114 | $170 |
| Aug 2027 | $74.98 | $114 | $174 |
| Sep 2027 | $73.86 | $115 | $178 |
| Oct 2027 | $73.23 | $115 | $181 |
Model historical accuracy
In historical tests across 300 stocks and 10 start dates, prices finished inside the model's 80% range about 80% of the time across the tested horizons.
- 80%
- 3 months
- 80%
- 6 months
- 82%
- 12 months
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Analyst Consensus & Target Price
Wall Street sentiment and price target analysis for BABA
Consensus based on 40 analysts
Price Target Analysis
Target Range: $95.64 - $239.33
Current vs Mean Target: +71.8%
Analyst Coverage: 40 firms tracking
What the analysts say
- Strong buy 8
- Buy 31
- Hold 1
- Sell 0
- Strong sell 1
95% of analysts rate it buy or strong buy, unchanged from 3 months ago.
BABA analyst actions and price-target changes
Rating moves and price targets published by the firms covering BABA.
Latest actions
- JP MorganTarget cutOct 12, 2026OverweightTarget $200 (from $210, −4.8%)
- CitigroupTarget raisedOct 8, 2026BuyTarget $193 (from $190, +1.6%)
- SusquehannaTarget raisedAug 28, 2026PositiveTarget $190 (from $185, +2.7%)
- JP MorganTarget raisedAug 21, 2026OverweightTarget $210 (from $205, +2.4%)
- BarclaysTarget raisedAug 21, 2026OverweightTarget $200 (from $195, +2.6%)
BABA earnings and revenue estimates
What analysts expect the company to report next, and the catalyst that will test it.
Next earnings report
Earnings history →Nov 23, 2026 in 33 days
- EPS estimate
- $11.48
- Revenue estimate
- $275.5B
Earnings per share
- Current quarter$10.91$8.59$14.19+150%18
- Next quarter$14.77$10.48$16.94+108%15
- Current year$44.44$37.59$53.08+66%30
- Next year$62.04$40.94$80.46+40%30
Revenue
- Current quarter$269.9B$265.1B$273.6B+9%21
- Next quarter$310.5B$292.3B$319.7B+9%16
- Current year$1.1T$1.0T$1.2T+9%44
- Next year$1.3T$1.1T$1.3T+13%44
BABA EPS estimate trend
How the consensus earnings-per-share estimate has moved, and how many analysts raised or cut it.
Current quarter
EPS estimate now10.91 CNY
+1.10 CNY (+11.2%) over 90 days
| Then | Estimate | Change to now |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 10.86 CNY | +0.04 CNY (+0.4%) |
| 30 days ago | 10.98 CNY | −0.07 CNY (−0.7%) |
| 60 days ago | 9.82 CNY | +1.08 CNY (+11.0%) |
| 90 days ago | 9.81 CNY | +1.10 CNY (+11.2%) |
- Analysts, last 7 days
- 2 raised · 1 cut
- Analysts, last 30 days
- 2 raised · 4 cut
Next quarter
EPS estimate now14.77 CNY
+1.22 CNY (+9.0%) over 90 days
| Then | Estimate | Change to now |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 14.66 CNY | +0.10 CNY (+0.7%) |
| 30 days ago | 14.87 CNY | −0.10 CNY (−0.7%) |
| 60 days ago | 13.71 CNY | +1.06 CNY (+7.7%) |
| 90 days ago | 13.55 CNY | +1.22 CNY (+9.0%) |
- Analysts, last 7 days
- 2 raised · 1 cut
- Analysts, last 30 days
- 2 raised · 4 cut
Current year
EPS estimate now44.44 CNY
−0.94 CNY (−2.1%) over 90 days
| Then | Estimate | Change to now |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 44.35 CNY | +0.09 CNY (+0.2%) |
| 30 days ago | 44.31 CNY | +0.13 CNY (+0.3%) |
| 60 days ago | 44.64 CNY | −0.20 CNY (−0.4%) |
| 90 days ago | 45.39 CNY | −0.94 CNY (−2.1%) |
- Analysts, last 7 days
- 5 raised · 1 cut
- Analysts, last 30 days
- 5 raised · 4 cut
Next year
EPS estimate now62.04 CNY
+0.39 CNY (+0.6%) over 90 days
| Then | Estimate | Change to now |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 62.14 CNY | −0.10 CNY (−0.2%) |
| 30 days ago | 62.14 CNY | −0.11 CNY (−0.2%) |
| 60 days ago | 61.48 CNY | +0.56 CNY (+0.9%) |
| 90 days ago | 61.65 CNY | +0.39 CNY (+0.6%) |
- Analysts, last 7 days
- 6 raised · 0 cut
- Analysts, last 30 days
- 6 raised · 4 cut
Yahoo, as of Oct 20, 2026
BABA: Tickzen Forecast vs Wall Street Targets
Tickzen's statistical range and the street's published targets on one price axis.
Dashed line: today's price $108.61
The analyst mean target of $186.56 is 62.1% above the model's median of $115.12 for Oct 2027. It sits above Tickzen's 80% model range.
The model's Oct 2027 upper range of $180.96 is below BABA's 52-week high of $182.50, and its lower range of $73.23 is below the 52-week low of $91.99.
They answer different questions: the model's range shows how far BABA has typically moved, while analyst targets are opinions about what it is worth.
How Tickzen calculates the BABA forecast range
The range is based on BABA's own historical price volatility and the model's forecast distribution: 80% of modelled outcomes fall inside it, 10% above and 10% below. The model uses daily price history only; analyst targets are shown separately and are not an input.
Central 80% prediction interval at the end of each period from a lognormal model scaled by the stock's own realised volatility (sqrt-time growth); base is the median path (long-run drift plus a shrunk Prophet trend).
The model is a range model, not a price predictor: its centre line is today's price plus normal long-run growth, so the range matters more than any single number. Probabilities describe the model's distribution, not guaranteed returns.
59% of the analyst target range falls inside the model's 80% range.
Model details
- Model confidence score: 62.5% (Moderate). This is an indicator-agreement score, a heuristic blend of technical indicators, volume, volatility, analyst consensus, data quality and market regime. It is not a probability and has not been back-tested; the validated figures are under Model historical accuracy.
- Version: tickzen-prophet-v2
- Anchored to the Oct 19, 2026 close of $108.57
- Generated Oct 20, 2026
- Sources: Yahoo Finance prices and analyst data; earnings calendar from Yahoo Finance and Finnhub.