Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.(ULCC)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move

Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, ULCC beat the consensus estimate 10 times (83%), missed 2 and landed in line 0. It has beaten estimates in each of the last 4 counted quarters.

Across its last 11 quarters with a measured reaction, ULCC moved an average of ±8.4% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 64% of the time; the largest gain was 15.5% and the largest drop -15.8%.

Options currently price a move of about ±12.5% (nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report). It measures the size of the expected move, not its direction. That is 1.48x its average historical move of ±8.4%, so options look expensive relative to history.

ULCC fell in the first session after 2 of its last 9 EPS beats (22%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower.

Across its last 11 quarters with price data, ULCC moved an average of -4.7% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 36% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (4 quarters), it fell the next day 75% of the time, averaging -7.8%. After a drop of 3% or more (6 quarters), it rose the next day 83% of the time, averaging +3.3%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.

In 9 reports ULCC opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 4 of 9 times (44%), and fully reversed 3 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.