Toll Brothers, Inc.(TOL)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move

Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move

Next report

Dec 7, 2026

TOL is scheduled to report on Dec 7, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $4.98.

Next report

Dec 7, 2026

In 44 days · after close

EPS beat rate

82%

9 of 11 quarters (+1 not counted)

Avg move after earnings

±4.4%

Up 42% of the time · last 12

Options-implied move

—

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EPS: Actual vs Estimate

Reported EPS against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.

Green beat or met, red missed, amber sources differ.

Stock Reaction After Earnings

Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.

Dashed lines mark the average actual move (±4.4%).

Did the stock rise after good news?

The next-day move after each of its last 9 EPS beats and 2 misses.

When it beat expectations

9 reports

▲ Rose 5×

▼ Fell 4×

When it missed expectations

2 reports

▼ Fell 2×

In plain words: it beat expectations 9 times, but the stock still fell 4 of those 9 times.

Report by report

Aug '26
Beat
▲ +4.0%
May '26
Beat
▲ +9.8%
Dec '25
Missed
▼ -2.4%
Aug '25
Beat
▼ -0.6%
May '25
Beat
▼ -0.5%
Feb '25
Missed
▼ -5.9%
Dec '24
Beat
▼ -6.9%
Aug '24
Beat
▲ +5.6%
May '24
Beat
▼ -8.5%
Feb '24
Beat
▲ +3.9%
Dec '23
Beat
▲ +1.9%

Clear beats and misses with a known reaction only. What counts as a beat

After an EPS beat

+1.0%

average next-day move · up 56% of 9 times

After an EPS miss

-4.1%

average next-day move · up 0% of 2 times

Why did TOL fall after beating earnings?

4 of TOL's last 11 reactions went against the EPS result. What stands out in each:

TOL beat EPS estimates in 9 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 4 times. In 3 of the 4 where we have price data, the stock had already run up before the report.

Aug 19, 2025EPS beat +3.6%stock -0.6% next day
- It had risen 3.0% in the final week before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
May 20, 2025EPS beat +22.4%stock -0.5% next day
- It had risen 7.2% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 2.3% higher, but sellers took over and it closed -0.5%.
Dec 9, 2024EPS beat +6.4%stock -6.9% next day
- It opened 5.7% lower as soon as trading resumed.
May 21, 2024EPS beat +14.5%stock -8.5% next day
- It had risen 9.0% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 2.5% lower as soon as trading resumed.

Patterns in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes: how we read them.

Was TOL's earnings move already priced in?

TOL's move in the month before each of its last 12 reports, against what it did after.

Avg move in the month before

+1.0%

last 12 reports

Higher before the report

58%

of the time

After a run-up of 3%+

Fell 80%

5 reports, avg -2.0%

How the run-up is measured (a move of 5% or more counts as large).

Before vs after each report

Grey: the month before each of the last 12 reports. Green or red: the day after.

Past reports only. How the run-up is measured

Does TOL hold its opening gap after earnings?

TOL's opening move after each report and where it closed that day.

In 11 reports TOL opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 11 times (18%), and fully reversed 1 time. Gaps up faded 1 of 6; gaps down recovered 1 of 5.

Aug 18, 2026Held
Opened +1.8%, closed +4.0%
May 19, 2026Held
Opened +3.5%, closed +9.8%
Feb 17, 2026Held
Opened -1.2%, closed -2.3%
Dec 8, 2025Faded
Opened -5.0%, closed -2.4%
May 20, 2025Reversed
Opened +2.3%, closed -0.5%
Feb 18, 2025Held
Opened -7.8%, closed -5.9%
Dec 9, 2024Held
Opened -5.7%, closed -6.9%
Aug 20, 2024Held
Opened +2.6%, closed +5.6%

How gaps, fades and reversals are defined

What the history says

It fell after 4 of its 9 EPS beats (44%): beating estimates has not been enough on its own.

TOL earnings history

Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.

Swipe sideways to see every column →

Report date	Time	EPS est.	EPS actual	Surprise	1-day move	3-day move
Aug 18, 2026	After close	$2.94	$2.97	+1.0%	+4.00%	+2.96%
May 19, 2026	After close	$2.59	$2.72	+5.0%	+9.80%	+8.21%
Feb 17, 2026	After close	$2.11	$2.19	sources differ	-2.34%	-1.12%
Dec 8, 2025	After close	$4.88	$4.58	-6.1%	-2.36%	+2.66%
Aug 19, 2025	After close	$3.60	$3.73	+3.6%	-0.57%	+5.29%
May 20, 2025	After close	$2.86	$3.50	+22.4%	-0.48%	-0.24%
Feb 18, 2025	After close	$2.05	$1.75	-14.6%	-5.87%	-8.66%
Dec 9, 2024	After close	$4.35	$4.63	+6.4%	-6.95%	-11.51%
Aug 20, 2024	After close	$3.31	$3.64	+10.0%	+5.62%	+11.38%
May 21, 2024	After close	$4.15	$4.75	+14.5%	-8.46%	-5.61%
Feb 20, 2024	After close	$1.77	$2.25	+27.1%	+3.95%	+7.48%
Dec 5, 2023	After close	$3.72	$4.11	+10.5%	+1.94%	+6.48%

Consensus for the next report: EPS $4.98, revenue $3.56B.

TOL Earnings FAQ

Answers computed from Toll Brothers, Inc.'s reported history

TOL is scheduled to report on Dec 7, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $4.98.

Over the last 11 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, TOL beat the consensus estimate 9 times (82%), missed 2 and landed in line 0. It has beaten estimates in each of the last 2 counted quarters. 1 quarter where our data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but not counted.

Across its last 12 quarters with a measured reaction, TOL moved an average of ±4.4% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 42% of the time; the largest gain was 9.8% and the largest drop -8.5%.

TOL fell in the first session after 4 of its last 9 EPS beats (44%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower. In 3 of the 4 of those falls where price data is available, the stock had already risen before the report.

Across its last 12 quarters with price data, TOL moved an average of +1.0% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 58% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (5 quarters), it fell the next day 80% of the time, averaging -2.0%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.

In 11 reports TOL opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 11 times (18%), and fully reversed once. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.

How we calculate these numbers · TOL: 12 reported quarters, latest Aug 18, 2026. Information only, not investment advice.

Earnings this week

Every report this week with expected moves.

Biggest expected earnings moves

Options-implied vs historical move, ranked.