TickzenTickzen

Super Micro Computer, Inc.(SMCI)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$32.42
1.02 (3.25%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $32.42 | PRIMARY TREND: TRANSITIONAL(Mixed Signals)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Choppy
Medium-Term (Weeks):Range-bound
Long-Term (Months):Needs 200d clear

Timeframes diverge: price is range-bound. Choose strategy based on your trading horizon.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $31.11 • Price vs 200d: $39.39
Decision Zone:Support: $28.64 • Resistance: $34.94

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 55.4 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
55.4 Neutral
MACD
-0.03 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the upper half of the bands, increasing the probability of mean-reversion or consolidation. However, strong trends can remain extended.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average. Low volume indicates indecision. Breakouts require volume expansion to confirm.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

13.5
Range-Bound
ADX < 20 indicates range-bound market. Trend-following strategies have low probability of success. Consider mean-reversion tactics (buy support, sell resistance).
Strategy: Range-bound. Fade extremes (sell resistance, buy support) with tight stops.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $34.94
Strong
Distance: 7.8%
Current: $32.42
Above 50d SMA
Support: $28.64
Moderate
Distance: 11.7%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Choppy / Range-Bound
No clear directional bias. Price oscillates between support/resistance.
Last Swing High:$34.94
Last Swing Low:$28.64
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Structure is neutral. Wait for breakout confirmation before taking directional bias.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 13.5 - Range-bound regime: Mean-reversion strategies preferred

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $34.94 | Swing Low: $28.64

Structure: Choppy / Range-Bound - No clear directional bias

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$34.94Resistance
7.8%Strong
$33.68
3.9%
$32.42Current
0.0%
$31.16
-3.9%
$29.90
-7.8%
$28.64Support
-11.7%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $32.42 shows closer to resistance zone - rejection probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for SMCI • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If SMCI holds above $31.61 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $34.94 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If SMCI breaks below $28.64 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $39.39 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $28.64 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $31.11 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Choppy
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Range-bound
Price near 50d SMA—directional breakout needed. Position traders should wait for confirmation.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Needs 200d clear
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $34.94 or breakdown below $28.64 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Range-bound—sell resistance, buy support. Breakout trade: enter above $34.94 or below $28.64 with volume.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

Similar Companies

→ Find stocks in the same sector→ View sector performance→ Compare with industry peers

Analysis Tools

→ Large-cap stocks screener→ Top daily gainers→ Market overview dashboard