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Transocean Ltd.(RIG)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$6.52
0.26 (4.24%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $6.52 | PRIMARY TREND: BULLISH(Overbought)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Overbought
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bullish structure
Long-Term (Months):Uptrend intact

Timeframes aligned: bullish across all horizons increases confidence in trend continuation.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $5.01 • Price vs 200d: $3.95
Decision Zone:Support: $4.54 • Resistance: $6.57

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 70.3 is overbought. The positive MACD suggests the probability of continued upside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
70.3 Overbought
MACD
0.44 Bullish

Market Mechanics: Distance from 50d SMA (30.2%) shows stretched upside momentum. Mean-reversion probability rises.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the upper half of the bands, increasing the probability of mean-reversion or consolidation. However, strong trends can remain extended.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average. This raises risk: rallies without volume expansion are suspect and prone to reversals. Retail-driven moves lack institutional support.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

62.6
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $6.57
Strong
Distance: 0.8%
Current: $6.52
Above 50d SMA
Support: $4.54
Moderate
Distance: 30.4%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Higher Highs, Higher Lows
Uptrend structure confirmed. Each dip finds support at higher lows.
Last Swing High:$6.57
Last Swing Low:$4.54
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Overbought RSI does not invalidate uptrend. Watch for lower high formation to confirm reversal.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 62.6 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $6.57 | Swing Low: $4.54

Structure: Higher Highs, Higher Lows (Uptrend) - Each dip finds support above prior lows

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$6.57Resistance
0.8%Strong
$6.16
-5.5%
$5.76
-11.7%
$5.35
-17.9%
$4.95
-24.1%
$4.54Support
-30.4%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $6.52 shows closer to resistance zone - rejection probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for RIG • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If RIG holds above $5.79 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $6.57 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If RIG breaks below $4.54 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $3.95 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $4.54 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $5.01 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Overbought
Overbought conditions increase mean-reversion risk. Consider taking profits on short-term positions.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bullish structure
Price above 50d SMA maintains bullish structure. Probability of continuation increases if volume supports rallies.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Uptrend intact
Bull market structure intact above 200d SMA. Long-term investors can hold positions with trailing stops.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Overbought conditions—risk shifts toward pullback. Consider reducing exposure or tightening stops.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Trend remains favorable—accumulate on pullbacks to 50d SMA ($5.01) with invalidation below 200d SMA ($3.95).
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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