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Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move

Next report
Oct 29, 2026

PGY is scheduled to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $0.48.

Next report
Oct 29, 2026
In 5 days · before open
EPS beat rate
67%
8 of 12 quarters
Avg move after earnings
±16.6%
Up 78% of the time · last 9
Options-implied move
±13.5%
0.81x history · options look fairly priced
Options fairly priced vs history (0.81x)
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EPS: Actual vs Estimate

Reported EPS against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.

Green beat or met, red missed, amber sources differ.

Stock Reaction After Earnings

Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.

Dashed lines: average actual move (±16.6%) and what options price for the next report (±13.5%).

Did the stock rise after good news?

The next-day move after each of its last 7 EPS beats and 2 misses.

When it beat expectations
7 reports
When it missed expectations
2 reports

In plain words: it beat expectations 7 times, but the stock still fell 2 of those 7 times.

Report by report
  • Jul '26
    Beat
    ▲ +9.0%
  • May '26
    Beat
    ▲ +4.5%
  • Feb '26
    Beat
    ▼ -23.9%
  • Nov '25
    Beat
    ▲ +12.8%
  • Feb '25
    Missed
    ▲ +24.3%
  • Nov '24
    Beat
    ▼ -35.6%
  • May '24
    Beat
    ▲ +20.0%
  • Feb '24
    Missed
    ▲ +6.2%
  • Nov '23
    Beat
    ▲ +13.2%

Clear beats and misses with a known reaction only. What counts as a beat

After an EPS beat
0.0%
average next-day move · up 71% of 7 times
After an EPS miss
+15.2%
average next-day move · up 100% of 2 times

Why did PGY fall after beating earnings?

4 of PGY's last 9 reactions went against the EPS result. What stands out in each:

PGY beat EPS estimates in 7 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 2 times.

  • Feb 9, 2026EPS beat +3.9%stock -23.9% next day
    • It opened 26.7% lower as soon as trading resumed.
  • Nov 12, 2024EPS beat +63.0%stock -35.6% next day
    • It had risen 52.0% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
    • It opened 27.4% lower as soon as trading resumed.

Rose despite an EPS miss (2 of 2)

  • Feb 13, 2025EPS missed -46.9%stock +24.3% next day
    • It opened 15.4% higher as soon as trading resumed.
  • Feb 21, 2024EPS missed -11.1%stock +6.2% next day
    • It opened 7.7% higher as soon as trading resumed.

Patterns in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes: how we read them.

Was PGY's earnings move already priced in?

PGY's move in the month before each of its last 9 reports, against what it did after.

Avg move in the month before
+6.2%
last 9 reports
Higher before the report
44%
of the time
After a run-up of 3%+
Fell 25%
4 reports, avg -0.2%
After a drop of 3%+
Rose 80%
5 reports, avg +6.2%

How the run-up is measured (a move of 5% or more counts as large).

Before vs after each report

Grey: the month before each of the last 9 reports. Green or red: the day after.

Past reports only. How the run-up is measured

Does PGY hold its opening gap after earnings?

PGY's opening move after each report and where it closed that day.

In 9 reports PGY opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 1 of 9 times (11%). Gaps up faded 1 of 7; gaps down recovered 0 of 2.

  • Jul 30, 2026Held
    Opened +11.1%, closed +9.0%
  • May 7, 2026Faded
    Opened +14.0%, closed +4.5%
  • Feb 9, 2026Held
    Opened -26.7%, closed -23.9%
  • Nov 10, 2025Held
    Opened +20.7%, closed +12.8%
  • Feb 13, 2025Held
    Opened +15.4%, closed +24.3%
  • Nov 12, 2024Held
    Opened -27.4%, closed -35.6%
  • May 9, 2024Held
    Opened +15.7%, closed +20.0%
  • Feb 21, 2024Held
    Opened +7.7%, closed +6.2%

How gaps, fades and reversals are defined

What the history says

  • PGY has beaten EPS estimates in 4 straight quarters.
  • Options price a ±13.5% move, in line with its usual ±16.6%.

PGY earnings history

Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.

Swipe sideways to see every column →

Report dateTimeEPS est.EPS actualSurprise1-day move3-day move
Jul 30, 2026Before open$0.72$1.07+48.6%+8.96%+37.34%
May 7, 2026Before open$0.56$0.73+30.4%+4.52%-1.96%
Feb 9, 2026Before open$0.77$0.80+3.9%-23.87%-30.95%
Nov 10, 2025Before open$0.66$1.02+54.5%+12.80%+6.01%
Aug 7, 2025Before open$0.67$0.64-4.5%——
May 7, 2025Before open$0.46$0.69+50.0%——
Feb 13, 2025Before open$0.32$0.17-46.9%+24.28%+43.89%
Nov 12, 2024Before open$0.27$0.44+63.0%-35.58%-43.93%
Aug 9, 2024Before open$0.28$0.10-64.3%——
May 9, 2024Before open$0.16$0.20+25.0%+20.00%+13.71%
Feb 21, 2024Before open$0.27$0.24-11.1%+6.15%+15.38%
Nov 2, 2023Before open$0.12$0.24+100.0%+13.18%+7.75%

Consensus for the next report: EPS $0.48, revenue $386.54M.

PGY Earnings FAQ

Answers computed from Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s reported history

PGY is scheduled to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $0.48.

Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, PGY beat the consensus estimate 8 times (67%), missed 4 and landed in line 0. It has beaten estimates in each of the last 4 counted quarters.

Across its last 9 quarters with a measured reaction, PGY moved an average of ±16.6% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 78% of the time; the largest gain was 24.3% and the largest drop -35.6%.

Options currently price a move of about ±13.5% (nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report). It measures the size of the expected move, not its direction. That is 0.81x its average historical move of ±16.6%, so options look fairly priced relative to history.

PGY fell in the first session after 2 of its last 7 EPS beats (29%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower.

Across its last 9 quarters with price data, PGY moved an average of +6.2% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 44% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (4 quarters), it fell the next day 25% of the time, averaging -0.2%. After a drop of 3% or more (5 quarters), it rose the next day 80% of the time, averaging +6.2%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.

In 9 reports PGY opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 1 of 9 times (11%), and fully reversed 0 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.

How we calculate these numbers · PGY: 12 reported quarters, latest Jul 30, 2026. Information only, not investment advice.

Earnings this week
Every report this week with expected moves.
Biggest expected earnings moves
Options-implied vs historical move, ranked.

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