Harley-Davidson, Inc.(HOG)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move

Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move

Next report

Oct 29, 2026

HOG is scheduled to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $0.48.

Next report

Oct 29, 2026

In 5 days · before open

EPS beat rate

73%

8 of 11 quarters (+1 not counted)

Avg move after earnings

±7.0%

Up 46% of the time · last 11

Options-implied move

±7.1%

1.02x history · options look fairly priced

Options fairly priced vs history (1.02x)

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EPS: Actual vs Estimate

Reported EPS against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.

Green beat or met, red missed, amber sources differ.

Stock Reaction After Earnings

Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.

Dashed lines: average actual move (±7.0%) and what options price for the next report (±7.1%).

Did the stock rise after good news?

The next-day move after each of its last 7 EPS beats and 3 misses.

When it beat expectations

7 reports

▲ Rose 2×

▼ Fell 5×

When it missed expectations

3 reports

▲ Rose 2×

▼ Fell 1×

In plain words: it beat expectations 7 times, but the stock still fell 5 of those 7 times.

Report by report

Jul '26
Beat
▼ -4.0%
Feb '26
Missed
▲ +4.0%
Nov '25
Beat
▼ -6.5%
Jul '25
Missed
▲ +13.4%
May '25
Beat
▲ +2.8%
Feb '25
Missed
▼ -1.6%
Oct '24
Beat
▼ -7.2%
Jul '24
Beat
▲ +7.4%
Apr '24
Beat
▼ -15.7%
Oct '23
Beat
▼ -6.5%

Clear beats and misses with a known reaction only. What counts as a beat

After an EPS beat

-4.2%

average next-day move · up 29% of 7 times

After an EPS miss

+5.3%

average next-day move · up 67% of 3 times

Why did HOG fall after beating earnings?

7 of HOG's last 10 reactions went against the EPS result. What stands out in each:

HOG beat EPS estimates in 7 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 5 times. In 2 of the 5 where we have price data, the stock had already run up before the report.

Jul 23, 2026EPS beat +17.2%stock -4.0% next day
- It had risen 8.0% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
Nov 4, 2025EPS beat +89.0%stock -6.5% next day
- It opened 1.1% lower as soon as trading resumed.
Oct 24, 2024EPS beat +12.3%stock -7.2% next day
- It opened 1.8% higher, but sellers took over and it closed -7.2%.
Apr 25, 2024EPS beat +13.2%stock -15.7% next day
- It had risen 4.0% in the final week before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 2.8% lower as soon as trading resumed.
Oct 26, 2023EPS beat +2.2%stock -6.5% next day
Nothing in the price and estimate numbers we track stands out for this one. Guidance and management comments are not part of our data.

Rose despite an EPS miss (2 of 3)

Feb 10, 2026EPS missed -130.2%stock +4.0% next day
- It had already fallen 6.0% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so weak results may have been expected.
Jul 30, 2025EPS missed -8.3%stock +13.4% next day
- It had already fallen 6.1% in the final week before the report, so weak results may have been expected.
- It opened 16.7% higher as soon as trading resumed.

Patterns in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes: how we read them.

Was HOG's earnings move already priced in?

HOG's move in the month before each of its last 11 reports, against what it did after.

Avg move in the month before

-3.3%

last 11 reports

Higher before the report

36%

of the time

After a drop of 3%+

Rose 33%

6 reports, avg -4.0%

How the run-up is measured (a move of 5% or more counts as large).

Before vs after each report

Grey: the month before each of the last 11 reports. Green or red: the day after.

Past reports only. How the run-up is measured

Does HOG hold its opening gap after earnings?

HOG's opening move after each report and where it closed that day.

In 8 reports HOG opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 3 of 8 times (38%), and fully reversed 3 times. Gaps up faded 2 of 5; gaps down recovered 1 of 3.

Feb 10, 2026Reversed
Opened -1.8%, closed +4.0%
Nov 4, 2025Held
Opened -1.1%, closed -6.5%
Jul 30, 2025Held
Opened +16.7%, closed +13.4%
May 1, 2025Held
Opened +4.6%, closed +2.8%
Feb 5, 2025Reversed
Opened +1.4%, closed -1.6%
Oct 24, 2024Reversed
Opened +1.8%, closed -7.2%
Jul 25, 2024Held
Opened +9.7%, closed +7.4%
Apr 25, 2024Held
Opened -2.8%, closed -15.7%

How gaps, fades and reversals are defined

What the history says

It fell after 5 of its 7 EPS beats (71%): beating estimates has not been enough on its own.
Options price a ±7.1% move, in line with its usual ±7.0%.

HOG earnings history

Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.

Swipe sideways to see every column →

Report date	Time	EPS est.	EPS actual	Surprise	1-day move	3-day move
Jul 23, 2026	Before open	$0.64	$0.75	+17.2%	-3.98%	-10.25%
May 5, 2026	Before open	$0.23	$0.22	sources differ	+8.19%	+1.85%
Feb 10, 2026	Before open	-$1.06	-$2.44	-130.2%	+3.97%	-2.18%
Nov 4, 2025	Before open	$1.64	$3.10	+89.0%	-6.46%	-7.27%
Jul 30, 2025	Before open	$0.96	$0.88	-8.3%	+13.38%	+4.79%
May 1, 2025	Before open	$0.77	$1.07	+39.0%	+2.77%	+6.07%
Feb 5, 2025	Before open	-$0.66	-$0.93	-40.9%	-1.57%	0.00%
Oct 24, 2024	Before open	$0.81	$0.91	+12.3%	-7.21%	-3.72%
Jul 25, 2024	Before open	$1.40	$1.63	+16.4%	+7.44%	+11.60%
Apr 25, 2024	Before open	$1.52	$1.72	+13.2%	-15.75%	-10.65%
Feb 8, 2024	Before open	$0.03	$0.18	+500.0%	—	—
Oct 26, 2023	Before open	$1.35	$1.38	+2.2%	-6.45%	-10.20%

Consensus for the next report: EPS $0.48, revenue $1.07B.

HOG Earnings FAQ

Answers computed from Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s reported history

HOG is scheduled to report on Oct 29, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $0.48.

Over the last 11 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, HOG beat the consensus estimate 8 times (73%), missed 3 and landed in line 0. 1 quarter where our data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but not counted.

Across its last 11 quarters with a measured reaction, HOG moved an average of ±7.0% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 46% of the time; the largest gain was 13.4% and the largest drop -15.8%.

Options currently price a move of about ±7.1% (nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report). It measures the size of the expected move, not its direction. That is 1.02x its average historical move of ±7.0%, so options look fairly priced relative to history.

HOG fell in the first session after 5 of its last 7 EPS beats (71%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower. In 2 of the 5 of those falls where price data is available, the stock had already risen before the report.

Across its last 11 quarters with price data, HOG moved an average of -3.3% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 36% of them. After a drop of 3% or more (6 quarters), it rose the next day 33% of the time, averaging -4.0%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.

In 8 reports HOG opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 3 of 8 times (38%), and fully reversed 3 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.

How we calculate these numbers · HOG: 12 reported quarters, latest Jul 23, 2026. Information only, not investment advice.

Earnings this week

Every report this week with expected moves.

Biggest expected earnings moves

Options-implied vs historical move, ranked.