Aurora Innovation, Inc.(AUR)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move

Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, AUR beat the consensus estimate 9 times (75%), missed 3 and landed in line 0.

Across its last 11 quarters with a measured reaction, AUR moved an average of ±9.6% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 55% of the time; the largest gain was 46.1% and the largest drop -21.8%.

Options currently price a move of about ±11.8% (nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report). It measures the size of the expected move, not its direction. That is 1.24x its average historical move of ±9.6%, so options look fairly priced relative to history.

AUR fell in the first session after 3 of its last 8 EPS beats (38%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower. In 2 of the 3 of those falls where price data is available, the stock had already risen before the report.

Across its last 11 quarters with price data, AUR moved an average of +6.4% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 64% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (6 quarters), it fell the next day 50% of the time, averaging -4.1%. After a drop of 3% or more (4 quarters), it rose the next day 50% of the time, averaging +1.3%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.

In 10 reports AUR opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 7 of 10 times (70%), and fully reversed 6 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.