PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/(PGR)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move
Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move
PGR is scheduled to report on Nov 2, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $4.23.
EPS: Actual vs Estimate
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.
Green = beat or met, red = missed, amber = our data sources disagree on beat vs miss for that quarter.
Stock Reaction After Earnings
Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.
Dashed lines mark the average actual move (±2.8%).
Did the stock rise after good news?
"Beat" means the company earned more than analysts expected. Here is what the stock did the next day.
In plain words: it beat expectations 9 times, but the stock still fell 2 of those 9 times.
- Jul '26Beat▼ -9.4%
- Apr '26Beat▲ +2.4%
- Jan '26Beat▲ +2.2%
- Oct '25Missed▼ -5.8%
- Jul '25Beat▲ +1.8%
- Apr '25Missed▼ -0.4%
- Jan '25Beat▲ +0.6%
- Oct '24Missed▼ -0.1%
- Jul '24Beat▼ -3.3%
- Apr '24Beat▲ +0.8%
- Jan '24Beat▲ +4.7%
- Oct '23Beat▲ +1.9%
Only reports with a clear beat or miss and a known price reaction are counted. A beat does not guarantee a gain.
Why did PGR fall after beating earnings?
Beating or missing estimates is only part of the story. These are the measurable things that stand out for each surprising reaction.
PGR beat EPS estimates in 9 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 2 times.
- Jul 15, 2026EPS beat +0.2%stock -9.4% next day
- It had risen 11.6% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- The EPS beat was small (+0.2%).
- It opened 8.2% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Jul 16, 2024EPS beat +31.8%stock -3.3% next day
- It had risen 6.6% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 2.5% higher, but sellers took over and it closed -3.3%.
These are patterns visible in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes. Information only, not investment advice.
Was PGR's earnings move already priced in?
Stocks often move in the weeks before a report. This compares that run-up with what happened after the report.
“Month before” is the move over the 20 trading days up to the last close before the report. “Priced in” means the good news may already be in the price. A run-up of 5% or more is treated as large.
Before vs after each report
Grey: how the stock moved in the 20 trading days before the report. Green or red: how it moved the day after.
Past reports only: this shows what happened, not what will happen.
Does PGR hold its opening gap after earnings?
A gap is how far the stock opens from the previous close. A gap fades when the stock gives back at least half of it by the end of the day.
In 10 reports PGR opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 5 of 10 times (50%), and fully reversed 4 times. Gaps up faded 3 of 6; gaps down recovered 2 of 4.
- Jul 15, 2026HeldOpened -8.2%, closed -9.4%
- Apr 15, 2026HeldOpened +1.3%, closed +2.4%
- Jan 28, 2026ReversedOpened -1.0%, closed +2.2%
- Oct 15, 2025HeldOpened -5.9%, closed -5.8%
- Jul 16, 2025HeldOpened +1.2%, closed +1.8%
- Apr 16, 2025ReversedOpened +1.8%, closed -0.4%
- Jan 28, 2025ReversedOpened -2.7%, closed +0.6%
- Jul 16, 2024ReversedOpened +2.5%, closed -3.3%
Gap = opening price vs the previous close. Close = the end of the first session that reflected the report. Reports without a clear opening time are left out.
What the history says
- PGR has beaten EPS estimates in 3 straight quarters.
PGR earnings history
Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.
Swipe sideways to see every column →
| Report date | Time | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | 1-day move | 3-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Before open | $4.84 | $4.85 | +0.2% | -9.43% | -8.22% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Before open | $4.88 | $4.96 | +1.6% | +2.36% | +3.05% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Before open | $4.43 | $4.67 | +5.4% | +2.24% | -0.04% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Before open | $5.27 | $4.44 | -15.7% | -5.78% | -6.15% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Before open | $4.43 | $4.88 | +10.2% | +1.76% | +1.74% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Before open | $4.78 | $4.65 | -2.7% | -0.35% | -6.77% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | After close | $3.56 | $4.08 | +14.6% | +0.55% | +0.57% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Before open | $3.67 | $3.58 | -2.5% | -0.11% | -0.21% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Before open | $2.01 | $2.65 | +31.8% | -3.27% | +3.42% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Before open | $3.21 | $3.76 | +17.1% | +0.81% | +3.01% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Before open | $2.43 | $2.97 | +22.2% | +4.72% | +5.34% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | Before open | $1.71 | $2.11 | +23.4% | +1.87% | +2.31% |
Consensus for the next report: EPS $4.23, revenue $22.68B.
PGR Earnings FAQ
Answers computed from PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/'s reported history
PGR is scheduled to report on Nov 2, 2026, before the market opens. Analysts expect EPS of $4.23.
Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, PGR beat the consensus estimate 9 times (75%), missed 3 and landed in line 0. It has beaten estimates in each of the last 3 counted quarters.
Across its last 12 quarters with a measured reaction, PGR moved an average of ±2.8% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 58% of the time; the largest gain was 4.7% and the largest drop -9.4%.
PGR fell in the first session after 2 of its last 9 EPS beats (22%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower.
Across its last 12 quarters with price data, PGR moved an average of +1.1% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 50% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (4 quarters), it fell the next day 50% of the time, averaging -1.5%. After a drop of 3% or more (3 quarters), it rose the next day 100% of the time, averaging +2.1%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.
In 10 reports PGR opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 5 of 10 times (50%), and fully reversed 4 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.
How we calculate these numbers
Reported EPS and estimates come from Yahoo Finance; report times, upcoming dates and revenue come from Finnhub. The 1-day move is the close-to-close change over the first session that reflects the report (the report-day close for after-close reports, the prior close for pre-market reports); reactions are left blank when the report time is unknown or looks inconsistent. The expected move is the price of the nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report divided by the share price, shown only when the quotes are liquid. Quarters where the two data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but never counted. Information only, not investment advice.
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