FIRST MERCHANTS CORP(FRME)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move
Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move
FRME is scheduled to report on Oct 21, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of $1.06.
EPS: Actual vs Estimate
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.
Green = beat or met, red = missed, amber = our data sources disagree on beat vs miss for that quarter.
Stock Reaction After Earnings
Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.
Dashed lines mark the average actual move (±2.5%).
Did the stock rise after good news?
"Beat" means the company earned more than analysts expected. Here is what the stock did the next day.
In plain words: it beat expectations 8 times, but the stock still fell 5 of those 8 times.
- Jul '26Missed▼ -4.3%
- Apr '26Beat▼ -1.7%
- Jan '26Beat▲ +0.5%
- Oct '25Beat▼ -0.5%
- Jul '25Beat▼ -3.7%
- Apr '25Beat▼ -1.1%
- Jan '25Beat▲ +3.5%
- Oct '24Beat▼ -3.6%
- Jul '24Missed▲ +2.0%
- May '24Beat▲ +2.3%
- Oct '23Missed▲ +3.2%
Only reports with a clear beat or miss and a known price reaction are counted. A beat does not guarantee a gain.
Why did FRME fall after beating earnings?
Beating or missing estimates is only part of the story. These are the measurable things that stand out for each surprising reaction.
FRME beat EPS estimates in 8 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 5 times. In 3 of the 5 where we have price data, the stock had already run up before the report.
- Apr 22, 2026EPS beat +6.2%stock -1.7% next day
- It had risen 6.3% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 2.0% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Oct 22, 2025EPS beat +3.1%stock -0.5% next day
Nothing in the price and estimate numbers we track stands out for this one. Guidance and management comments are not part of our data.
- Jul 23, 2025EPS beat +3.2%stock -3.7% next day
- It had risen 10.7% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- Apr 24, 2025EPS beat +3.3%stock -1.1% next day
- It had risen 5.0% in the final week before the report, so good news may already have been priced in.
- It opened 5.2% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Oct 24, 2024EPS beat +5.6%stock -3.6% next day
- It opened 3.0% lower as soon as trading resumed.
Rose despite an EPS miss (2 of 3)
- Jul 25, 2024EPS missed -15.0%stock +2.0% next day
Nothing in the price and estimate numbers we track stands out for this one. Guidance and management comments are not part of our data.
- Oct 26, 2023EPS missed -1.1%stock +3.2% next day
- It had already fallen 5.8% in the final week before the report, so weak results may have been expected.
- The EPS miss was small (-1.1%).
These are patterns visible in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes. Information only, not investment advice.
Was FRME's earnings move already priced in?
Stocks often move in the weeks before a report. This compares that run-up with what happened after the report.
“Month before” is the move over the 20 trading days up to the last close before the report. “Priced in” means the good news may already be in the price. A run-up of 5% or more is treated as large.
Before vs after each report
Grey: how the stock moved in the 20 trading days before the report. Green or red: how it moved the day after.
Past reports only: this shows what happened, not what will happen.
Does FRME hold its opening gap after earnings?
A gap is how far the stock opens from the previous close. A gap fades when the stock gives back at least half of it by the end of the day.
In 6 reports FRME opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 3 of 6 times (50%), and fully reversed 1 time. Gaps up faded 1 of 2; gaps down recovered 2 of 4.
- Jul 22, 2026FadedOpened -9.5%, closed -4.3%
- Apr 22, 2026HeldOpened -2.0%, closed -1.7%
- Apr 24, 2025FadedOpened -5.2%, closed -1.1%
- Jan 30, 2025HeldOpened +1.9%, closed +3.5%
- Oct 24, 2024HeldOpened -3.0%, closed -3.6%
- Jan 25, 2024ReversedOpened +1.7%, closed -2.9%
Gap = opening price vs the previous close. Close = the end of the first session that reflected the report. Reports without a clear opening time are left out.
What the history says
- It fell after 5 of its 8 EPS beats (63%): beating estimates has not been enough on its own.
FRME earnings history
Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.
Swipe sideways to see every column →
| Report date | Time | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | 1-day move | 3-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | After close | $1.03 | $0.74 | -28.2% | -4.25% | -2.47% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | After close | $0.97 | $1.03 | +6.2% | -1.66% | -0.15% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | After close | $0.95 | $0.98 | +3.2% | +0.47% | +2.39% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | After close | $0.96 | $0.99 | +3.1% | -0.52% | +0.38% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | After close | $0.95 | $0.98 | +3.2% | -3.66% | -2.91% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Before open | $0.91 | $0.94 | +3.3% | -1.14% | -3.55% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Before open | $0.90 | $1.00 | +11.1% | +3.51% | +6.88% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Before open | $0.90 | $0.95 | +5.6% | -3.64% | -0.54% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | Before open | $0.80 | $0.68 | -15.0% | +2.04% | +1.72% |
| May 1, 2024 | Market hours | $0.82 | $0.85 | +3.7% | +2.30% | +3.80% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Before open | $0.87 | $0.87 | 0.0% | -2.92% | -2.06% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | Before open | $0.95 | $0.94 | -1.1% | +3.22% | +3.68% |
Consensus for the next report: EPS $1.06, revenue $207.93M.
FRME Earnings FAQ
Answers computed from FIRST MERCHANTS CORP's reported history
FRME is scheduled to report on Oct 21, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of $1.06.
Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, FRME beat the consensus estimate 8 times (67%), missed 3 and landed in line 1.
Across its last 12 quarters with a measured reaction, FRME moved an average of ±2.5% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 42% of the time; the largest gain was 3.5% and the largest drop -4.3%.
FRME fell in the first session after 5 of its last 8 EPS beats (63%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower. In 3 of the 5 of those falls where price data is available, the stock had already risen before the report.
Across its last 12 quarters with price data, FRME moved an average of +2.2% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 50% of them. After a run-up of 3% or more (4 quarters), it fell the next day 75% of the time, averaging -1.9%. After a drop of 3% or more (4 quarters), it rose the next day 25% of the time, averaging -0.3%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.
In 6 reports FRME opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 3 of 6 times (50%), and fully reversed once. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.
How we calculate these numbers
Reported EPS and estimates come from Yahoo Finance; report times, upcoming dates and revenue come from Finnhub. The 1-day move is the close-to-close change over the first session that reflects the report (the report-day close for after-close reports, the prior close for pre-market reports); reactions are left blank when the report time is unknown or looks inconsistent. The expected move is the price of the nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report divided by the share price, shown only when the quotes are liquid. Quarters where the two data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but never counted. Information only, not investment advice.
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