AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC(AFG)Earnings Date, History & Expected Move
Next report date, beat rate and options-implied move
AFG is scheduled to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $3.59.
EPS: Actual vs Estimate
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, last 12 quarters.
Green = beat or met, red = missed, amber = our data sources disagree on beat vs miss for that quarter.
Stock Reaction After Earnings
Close-to-close move in the first session that reflected each report.
Dashed lines mark the average actual move (±3.3%).
Did the stock rise after good news?
"Beat" means the company earned more than analysts expected. Here is what the stock did the next day.
In plain words: it beat expectations 8 times, but the stock still fell 5 of those 8 times.
- Aug '26Beat▲ +4.4%
- Apr '26Missed▲ +3.0%
- Feb '26Beat▼ -3.1%
- Nov '25Beat▲ +2.8%
- Aug '25Beat▲ +2.7%
- May '25Missed▼ -6.1%
- Feb '25Beat▼ -6.2%
- Nov '24Missed▲ +5.0%
- Aug '24Beat▼ -0.7%
- May '24Beat▼ -0.8%
- Feb '24Missed▲ +2.1%
- Nov '23Beat▼ -2.1%
Only reports with a clear beat or miss and a known price reaction are counted. A beat does not guarantee a gain.
Why did AFG fall after beating earnings?
Beating or missing estimates is only part of the story. These are the measurable things that stand out for each surprising reaction.
AFG beat EPS estimates in 8 quarters, and the stock still closed lower the next day 5 times.
- Feb 3, 2026EPS beat +9.9%stock -3.1% next day
- It opened 2.1% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Feb 4, 2025EPS beat +3.7%stock -6.2% next day
- It opened 3.0% lower as soon as trading resumed.
- Aug 6, 2024EPS beat +4.9%stock -0.7% next day
Nothing in the price and estimate numbers we track stands out for this one. Guidance and management comments are not part of our data.
- May 1, 2024EPS beat +1.1%stock -0.8% next day
- The EPS beat was small (+1.1%).
- Nov 1, 2023EPS beat +0.8%stock -2.1% next day
- The EPS beat was small (+0.8%).
Rose despite an EPS miss (3 of 4)
- Apr 29, 2026EPS missed -3.5%stock +3.0% next day
Nothing in the price and estimate numbers we track stands out for this one. Guidance and management comments are not part of our data.
- Nov 5, 2024EPS missed -6.1%stock +5.0% next day
- It had already fallen 6.1% in the 20 trading sessions before the report, so weak results may have been expected.
- It opened 4.1% higher as soon as trading resumed.
- Feb 6, 2024EPS missed -1.7%stock +2.1% next day
- The EPS miss was small (-1.7%).
These are patterns visible in estimates and prices, not confirmed causes. Information only, not investment advice.
Was AFG's earnings move already priced in?
Stocks often move in the weeks before a report. This compares that run-up with what happened after the report.
“Month before” is the move over the 20 trading days up to the last close before the report. “Priced in” means the good news may already be in the price. A run-up of 5% or more is treated as large.
Before vs after each report
Grey: how the stock moved in the 20 trading days before the report. Green or red: how it moved the day after.
Past reports only: this shows what happened, not what will happen.
Does AFG hold its opening gap after earnings?
A gap is how far the stock opens from the previous close. A gap fades when the stock gives back at least half of it by the end of the day.
In 8 reports AFG opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 8 times (25%), and fully reversed 2 times. Gaps up faded 0 of 3; gaps down recovered 2 of 5.
- Aug 4, 2026HeldOpened +2.8%, closed +4.4%
- Apr 29, 2026ReversedOpened -2.5%, closed +3.0%
- Feb 3, 2026HeldOpened -2.1%, closed -3.1%
- Nov 4, 2025HeldOpened +1.4%, closed +2.8%
- Aug 5, 2025ReversedOpened -1.2%, closed +2.7%
- May 6, 2025HeldOpened -4.6%, closed -6.1%
- Feb 4, 2025HeldOpened -3.0%, closed -6.2%
- Nov 5, 2024HeldOpened +4.1%, closed +5.0%
Gap = opening price vs the previous close. Close = the end of the first session that reflected the report. Reports without a clear opening time are left out.
What the history says
- It fell after 5 of its 8 EPS beats (63%): beating estimates has not been enough on its own.
AFG earnings history
Last 12 reported quarters with the stock's reaction.
Swipe sideways to see every column →
| Report date | Time | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | 1-day move | 3-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | After close | $2.37 | $2.82 | +19.0% | +4.36% | +3.55% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | After close | $2.56 | $2.47 | -3.5% | +2.97% | +1.53% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | After close | $3.32 | $3.65 | +9.9% | -3.12% | +0.61% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | After close | $2.51 | $2.69 | +7.2% | +2.80% | +8.79% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | After close | $2.10 | $2.14 | +1.9% | +2.69% | +4.04% |
| May 6, 2025 | After close | $2.08 | $1.84 | -11.5% | -6.14% | -6.27% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | After close | $3.01 | $3.12 | +3.7% | -6.23% | -6.95% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | After close | $2.46 | $2.31 | -6.1% | +4.99% | +8.89% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | After close | $2.44 | $2.56 | +4.9% | -0.70% | +2.37% |
| May 1, 2024 | After close | $2.73 | $2.76 | +1.1% | -0.82% | +1.03% |
| Feb 6, 2024 | After close | $2.89 | $2.84 | -1.7% | +2.11% | +2.55% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | After close | $2.43 | $2.45 | +0.8% | -2.09% | -0.67% |
Consensus for the next report: EPS $3.59, revenue $2.09B.
AFG Earnings FAQ
Answers computed from AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC's reported history
AFG is scheduled to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts expect EPS of $3.59.
Over the last 12 quarters with a usable EPS surprise, AFG beat the consensus estimate 8 times (67%), missed 4 and landed in line 0.
Across its last 12 quarters with a measured reaction, AFG moved an average of ±3.3% in the first session after reporting. It closed higher 50% of the time; the largest gain was 5.0% and the largest drop -6.2%.
AFG fell in the first session after 5 of its last 8 EPS beats (63%). A beat that was already priced in, or weaker guidance, can send a stock lower.
Across its last 12 quarters with price data, AFG moved an average of -0.9% in the 20 trading sessions before reporting and was higher in 33% of them. After a drop of 3% or more (4 quarters), it rose the next day 50% of the time, averaging +1.0%. This describes past reports; it is not a forecast.
In 8 reports AFG opened at least 1% away from the previous close. It gave back half or more of that gap by the close 2 of 8 times (25%), and fully reversed 2 times. A fade means the opening move was partly undone during the first session.
How we calculate these numbers
Reported EPS and estimates come from Yahoo Finance; report times, upcoming dates and revenue come from Finnhub. The 1-day move is the close-to-close change over the first session that reflects the report (the report-day close for after-close reports, the prior close for pre-market reports); reactions are left blank when the report time is unknown or looks inconsistent. The expected move is the price of the nearest at-the-money straddle that expires after the report divided by the share price, shown only when the quotes are liquid. Quarters where the two data sources disagree on beat versus miss are shown but never counted. Information only, not investment advice.
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