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Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$15.27
-0.03 (-0.22%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $15.27 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $16.62 • Price vs 200d: $15.45
Decision Zone:Support: $13.58 • Resistance: $18.48

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 44.1 is neutral. The positive MACD suggests the probability of continued upside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
44.1 Neutral
MACD
0.02 Bullish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume increases above 20-day average. This occurs during selling pressure or capitulation. If price stabilizes despite high volume, accumulation may be underway (potential reversal signal).

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

31.3
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $18.48
Strong
Distance: 21.0%
Current: $15.27
Below 50d SMA
Support: $13.58
Moderate
Distance: 11.1%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$18.48
Last Swing Low:$13.58
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 31.3 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $18.48 | Swing Low: $13.58

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$18.48Resistance
21.0%Strong
$17.50
14.6%
$16.52
8.2%
$15.54Current
1.8%
$14.56
-4.6%
$13.58Support
-11.1%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $15.27 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for RIVN • 3M • 57 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If RIVN holds above $15.45 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $18.48 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If RIVN breaks below $13.58 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $15.45 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $13.58 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $16.62 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $16.62 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $18.48 or breakdown below $13.58 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $16.62 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $13.58 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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