TickzenTickzen

Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)
NASDAQ

Risk Analysis & Market Sentiment

$30.70
0.02 (0.08%)

Risk Analysis & Market Sentiment

Comprehensive risk, liquidity, and regime view for CFLT

Data Quality: 85.39/100

Snapshot of your risk profile

  • Volatility Context: With 3.12% annualized volatility, expect typical daily moves of approximately 0.2% percentage.
  • Downside Risk: The 95% VaR indicates that on 1 out of every 20 days, losses could exceed -5.55%. Ensure your stop-losses are wide enough to survive normal noise but tight enough to catch this break.
  • Liquidity: Medium liquidity suggests you can likely enter and exit easily at current volume.
95% VaR
-5.55%
30d Vol
3.12%
Max DD
-78.77%
Liquidity
50.8
Time horizon:

Position Risk Calculator

Estimate potential losses for a specific position size and holding period using VaR, CVaR, and historical drawdowns.

$
95% VaR
over horizon
$555
(-5.5%)
95% CVaR
bad tail days
$946
(-9.5%)
Max Drawdown
historical worst case
$7877
(-78.8%)

Risk Analysis

Value at Risk, risk-adjusted returns, and volatility measures

Confidence
85.39%

Return Distribution (Loss vs Gain)

Most daily moves cluster near 0%, with rarer large moves in the tails. Use this to gauge how often typical days versus shock days occur for CFLT.

Volatility Structure (Trend vs Mean)

Recent 30-day volatility is 4.3%, which is calmer than usual compared with its long-term mean of 59.1%.

Tail & Distribution Risk (Shock Probability)

Fat Tail (<-2%)
Fat Tail (>2%)

Over the sample, fat-tail days show a bias toward loss days, with approximately 102 extreme loss buckets and 100 extreme gain buckets populated.

Drawdown Analytics (Depth of Loss)

The worst historical drawdown reached -57.7%. The current drawdown sits around -18.5%, helping you calibrate pain vs opportunity.

Value at Risk (VaR)
Conf: 92.00%

95% VaR
-5.55%
99% VaR
-10.94%
95% CVaR
-9.46%
99% CVaR
-17.40%
VaR Methodology
Method: Historical Simulation (Percentile)Sample Size: 1503Conf 95%: 0.05Conf 99%: 0.01Period: 1503dModel: Daily
CVaR Methodology
Method: Average of tail losses (Historical - Conditional)Tail 95%: 76Tail 99%: 16

Performance RatiosConf: 85.00%

Sharpe
0.06
Sortino
0.07
Ratio Methodology
Sharpe Period: 1503dSortino Period: 1503dRf Rate: 3.60%Daily Rf: 0.00014Source: ^IRX (13-week T-bill)Ann. Factor: 15.8745Downside: Only negative excess returns

Volatility & Drawdown
Conf: 92.00%

30d Annual Vol
3.12%
Hist. Annual Vol
62.82%
Max Drawdown
-78.77%
Vol/DD Methodology
30d Method: Std Dev * sqrt(252)30d Sample: 30dAnn. Factor: 15.8745Hist Method: Std Dev * sqrt(252)Hist Sample: 1503dDD Period: 1504dTrading Days: 252

Market & Distribution

Beta
0.95
Skewness
-0.49
Kurtosis
20.35
Distrib Methodology
Skew Period: 1503dKurt Period: 1503dSkew Interpret: Negative = left tail risk

Liquidity Profile
Conf: 59.95%

50.8
Liquidity Score
Illiquidity Risk
Medium
Vol. Consistency60.00
Market Depth Score0.80
Liquidity Methodology
Method: Hasbrouck Modified Volume Model (2009)Period: 90dActual Sample: 61dVol Wgt: 60Vol Bench: 10000000Mcap Wgt: 15Est. Stability: 25Stability Metric: Volume Coefficient of VariationFreshness: Daily (updated with market close)Sufficient Data: True

Bankruptcy Risk
Conf: 90.00%

3.30
Altman Z-Score
Zone
Safe

Component Ratios

Work. Cap / Assets0.65
Ret. Earn / Assets-0.77
EBIT / Assets-0.13
Mkt Val / Liab6.05
Sales / Assets0.39
Altman Methodology
Calculation: Altman Z-Score (1968)Period: annualSource: SEC EDGAR via yfinanceFiling: 10-KData Age: 53dCoeffs: A=1.2, B=1.4, C=3.3, D=0.6, E=1Completeness: 100%Imputed: No

Market Regime

Current PhaseBalanced
Regime Data Coverage100.00%
Bull Volatility
0.53
Corr. Volatility
0.67
Downside Cap
0.84

Analyst & Forecast Scenarios

Price targets from analyst estimates and forecast models - shown for educational reference only.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: These scenarios reflect third-party analyst targets and forecast model outputs. They are provided for educational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Past performance and forecasts do not guarantee future results.
Optimistic Scenario
Source: Analyst High / Forecast Max
Price Target$31.00
Potential Change+1.0%
Base Scenario
Source: Analyst Mean / 1Y Forecast
Price Target$30.89
Potential Change+0.6%
Pessimistic Scenario
Source: Analyst Low / Forecast Min
Price Target$29.00
Potential Change-5.5%
Data Sources & Methodology:
  • Optimistic: Based on analyst high target prices and maximum forecast values from monthly projections
  • Base: Uses analyst consensus (mean) target or 1-year forecast from predictive models
  • Pessimistic: Derived from analyst low targets and minimum forecast values
  • These are third-party estimates and model outputs, not guarantees. Actual prices may differ significantly.

Risk Regime Matrix – Regime × Volatility × Liquidity

Qualitative summary of the current environment with actionable trading guidance based on regime, volatility and liquidity metrics.

Regime
Balanced
Volatility
low (3.1%)
Liquidity Level
medium

Mixed or transitional regime - combine technical and fundamental analysis.

Recommended Risk Parameters

Stop Loss: 2x ATR
Position Size: 85%

Action Items:

✓ Use standard risk management (2x ATR stops)

✓ Reduce size if uncertain (80-90% of normal)

✓ Monitor key support/resistance for direction

✓ Diversify across multiple setups

📊 Beta Comparison

Stock Beta

0.95

Market (S&P 500)

1.00

📊 Benchmark-Like
-5% vs benchmark

What This Means

Benchmark-Like Volatility - Moves in line with Market (S&P 500)

When Market (S&P 500) moves up 10%, this stock typically moves about 9.5% in the same direction. This stock tracks the benchmark closely.

📈 Volatility in Historical Context

Current

3.1%

Percentile

0th

Avg

59.1%

Min: 3.8%Max: 106.9%
Very low Volatility

What This Means

Current volatility of 3.1% is at the 0th percentile of its historical range. This is unusually calm compared to typical volatility of 59.1%. Low volatility often precedes major price moves.

Trading Implications:

Unusually calm - Consider tightening stops and increasing position size slightly. Low vol may precede breakout.

Risk Disclaimer: All risk metrics and sentiment indicators are based on historical data and should not be considered as investment advice. Risk measures may not predict future performance, and sentiment can change rapidly. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Calculated: 2/22/2026, 11:45:06 PM
ver: 1 | method: RiskAnalyzer.comprehensive_risk_profile_with_metadata

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