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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(ARWR)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$74.30
2.92 (4.10%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $74.30 | PRIMARY TREND: TRANSITIONAL(Mixed Signals)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Choppy
Medium-Term (Weeks):Range-bound
Long-Term (Months):Neutral

Timeframes diverge: price is range-bound. Choose strategy based on your trading horizon.

Technical Context Zones

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $77.93 • Price vs 200d: $69.41
Decision Zone:Support: $69.88 • Resistance: $87.83

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 39.7 is neutral. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
39.7 Neutral
MACD
-1.77 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the lower half of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume increases above 20-day average. High volume without clear direction suggests institutional repositioning. Wait for breakout confirmation.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

29.2
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $87.83
Strong
Distance: 18.2%
Current: $74.30
Below 50d SMA
Support: $69.88
Moderate
Distance: 5.9%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Choppy / Range-Bound
No clear directional bias. Price oscillates between support/resistance.
Last Swing High:$87.83
Last Swing Low:$69.88
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Structure is neutral. Wait for breakout confirmation before taking directional bias.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 29.2 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $87.83 | Swing Low: $69.88

Structure: Choppy / Range-Bound - No clear directional bias

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$87.83Resistance
18.2%Strong
$84.24
13.4%
$80.65
8.5%
$77.06
3.7%
$73.47Current
-1.1%
$69.88Support
-5.9%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $74.30 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for ARWR • 3M • 62 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If ARWR holds above $79.66 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $87.83 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If ARWR breaks below $69.88 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $69.41 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $69.88 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $77.93 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Choppy
Neutral momentum—wait for clearer directional signals before committing.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Range-bound
Price near 50d SMA—directional breakout needed. Position traders should wait for confirmation.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Neutral
Bull market structure intact above 200d SMA. Long-term investors can hold positions with trailing stops.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Wait for directional clarity. Breakout above $87.83 or breakdown below $69.88 needed.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Range-bound—sell resistance, buy support. Breakout trade: enter above $87.83 or below $69.88 with volume.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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