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Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(ALNY)
NASDAQ

Technical Analysis & Charts

$267.47
-15.68 (-5.54%)

Technical Analysis

CURRENT PRICE: $267.47 | PRIMARY TREND: BEARISH(Downtrend Intact)

Multi-Timeframe Context

Short-Term (Days):Weak
Medium-Term (Weeks):Bearish structure
Long-Term (Months):Requires 200d reclaim

Timeframes conflict: short-term oversold conditions create bounce probability, but medium/long-term structure remains weak. This explains contradictory signals.

Technical Context Zones

Mean-Reversion Zone Active

RSI < 30 + below lower Bollinger Band. Probability of short-term bounce increases. However: reversal requires volume expansion > 20-day average to confirm accumulation.

Trend Zone:Price vs 50d: $294.53 • Price vs 200d: $319.87
Decision Zone:Support: $266.43 • Resistance: $380.00

Momentum Indicators

RSI at 29.1 is oversold. The negative MACD suggests the probability of continued downside pressure, though momentum shifts can occur.

RSI (14d)
29.1 Oversold
MACD
-4.35 Bearish

Market Mechanics: Price remains within normal deviation from 50d SMA. Trend can continue without major mean-reversion pressure.

Bollinger Bands – Position Context

Price trades in the below lower band of the bands, increasing the probability of short-term bounce. However, downtrends can remain oversold longer than expected.

Note: Bands show volatility zones, not strict buy/sell signals. Confluence with volume and momentum increases reliability.

Volume Analysis – Causal Context

Trading volume declines below 20-day average.

Institutional-Grade Market Analysis

Trend Strength (ADX)

38.3
Trending
ADX > 25 confirms strong trend. Directional strategies work best. Avoid counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signals emerge.
Strategy: Trend-following active. Use pullbacks to moving averages as entry points.

Support/Resistance Strength

Resistance: $380.00
Strong
Distance: 42.1%
Current: $267.47
Below 50d SMA
Support: $266.43
Strong
Distance: 0.4%
Probability Zones: Closer proximity increases bounce/rejection probability. Volume confirmation required at levels.

Market Structure

Pattern: Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Downtrend structure intact. Each rally fails at lower resistance.
Last Swing High:$380.00
Last Swing Low:$266.43
Prevents RSI-Only Traps: Despite oversold RSI, downtrend structure remains valid until price reclaims 50d SMA on volume.
⚠️ Trap Risk: Oversold RSI in downtrend often leads to failed bounces. Require volume > 20d avg + close above 50d SMA for reversal.

ADX Trend Strength - 90-Day Overlay

Threshold markers at 20 and 25 show regime changes

Current ADX: 38.3 - Trending regime: Trend-following strategies active

Market Structure - Swing High/Low Analysis

Visual confirmation of trend structure (90-day view)

Swing High: $380.00 | Swing Low: $266.43

Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows (Downtrend) - Each rally fails below prior resistance

Support/Resistance Probability Bands

Color intensity = strength | Distance percentages shown inline

$380.00Resistance
42.1%Strong
$357.29
33.6%
$334.57
25.1%
$311.86
16.6%
$289.14
8.1%
$266.43Support
-0.4%Strong
Instant Insight: Closer proximity = higher bounce/rejection probability. Strong zones (darker colors) require volume confirmation to break. Current price at $267.47 shows closer to support zone - bounce probability increases.

Technical Analysis

Advanced technical indicators for ALNY • 3M • 62 data points

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility analysis with 20-period moving average and ±2σ bands

Upper
SMA-20
Lower
Price

Trading Plan & Invalidation Rules

Bullish Scenario: If ALNY holds above $300.25 on normal or rising volume, probability of continuation toward $380.00 increases.
Bearish Scenario: If ALNY breaks below $266.43 on expanding volume (confirmation required), risk shifts toward lower historical supports. Monitor 200d SMA at $319.87 as potential floor.
Invalidation Rules:
  • Bullish thesis fails if price closes below $266.43 on volume >20-day average (indicates institutional selling).
  • Bearish thesis fails if price closes above $294.53 on volume >20-day average (indicates accumulation).
  • Monitor for volume divergence: price making new highs/lows on declining volume suggests exhaustion.

Multi-Timeframe Verdict Matrix

SHORT-TERM (Days)
Weak
Probability of bounce increases due to oversold RSI. Swing traders can consider entry near support.
MEDIUM-TERM (Weeks)
Bearish structure
Price below 50d SMA reflects bearish structure. Recovery requires reclaim of $294.53 on expanding volume.
LONG-TERM (Months)
Requires 200d reclaim
Below 200d SMA suggests bear market risk. Long-term investors should avoid new positions until trend improves.
📊 Unified Recommendation
For Swing Traders (Days-Weeks): Mean-reversion zone active—probability of bounce increases. Consider entry near $266.43 with stop below. Target: $300.25.
For Position Traders (Weeks-Months): Bearish structure—avoid new longs until price reclaims $294.53 on rising volume. Consider shorts below $266.43 with volume confirmation above 20-day average.
⚠️ Important: This analysis reflects probability-based assessments, not certainties. Markets can remain irrational longer than expected. Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk. Invalidation rules are critical—if thesis breaks, exit promptly.

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